Westwood vaults into Dubai lead

Golf Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Dubai, United Arab Emirates (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lee Westwood fired a five-under 67 on Saturday to vault into the lead at 15-under par after three rounds of the Dubai Desert Classic.

Westwood was three shots behind Rory McIlroy and Thomas Bjorn when the day started, but finished it with a one-stroke edge over playing partners Stephen Gallacher and Marcel Siem, as well as first-round leader Rafael Cabrera-Bello.

Gallacher and Siem each carded four-under 68s at the Emirates Golf Club, while Cabrera-Bello managed a two-under 70.

McIlroy is two shots back at 13-under after an even-par 72 on Saturday. He is joined there by Martin Kaymer, Scott Jamieson and Joel Sjoholm. Kaymer and Jamieson each shot rounds of two-under 70, while Sjoholm had the low round of the day with a six-under 66.

Bjorn stumbled to a one-over 73 and is tied for ninth at minus-12 with Ben Curtis and George Coetzee.

Westwood was coming off a seven-under 65 on Friday that concluded with three straight birdies. He added three birdies on his first four holes Saturday to reach 13-under.

"I got off to a very good start, three under after four, rolled the ball well on the greens and hit a lot of good quality iron shots," the world No. 3 said Saturday.

Westwood sandwiched a pair of birdies around a bogey late in his opening nine and made the turn at 12-under, then put together three more birdies over his first four holes on the back side and closed the round with five pars.

"I played nicely again," the Englishman added, "very solid."

Westwood has 21 career European Tour victories and has had a decent start to 2012 with a tie for 17th at Abu Dhabi and a tie for 12th at the Qatar Masters.

"I've won 30-odd times in my career," stated Westwood, who has also won two PGA Tour events and 10 other times around the world. "So I'm used to knowing what to do when I'm leading a tournament."

McIlroy, the second-ranked player in the world and the 2009 Dubai champ, had a birdie and a bogey on an uneventful front nine, then bogeyed the par-five 10th to start an up-and-down back. He added two more bogeys and three birdies over the final eight holes.

Bjorn, the 2001 Dubai winner, held a two-shot lead at 15-under after a birdie at the 10th, but bogeyed three of his last four holes.

NOTES: Defending champion Alvaro Quiros managed a one-under 71 Saturday and is tied for 35th at minus-five...Paul Lawrie, last week's winner in Qatar, is six-under par, as is American John Daly...Colin Montgomerie is one-over par after struggling to a five-over 77 Saturday.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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